| 近60年开都河源区径流演变及驱动因素定量分析 |
| Quantitative Analysis of Discharge and Driving Factors in the Headwaters of Kaidu River over 60 Years |
| 投稿时间：2021-12-23 修订日期：2022-01-02 |
| DOI：10.15928/j.1674-3075.202112230423 |
| 中文关键词:径流 降水 人类活动 突变分析 双累积曲线 开都河 |
| 英文关键词:runoff precipitation human activity abrupt change analysis double cumulative curve Kaidu River |
| 基金项目:新疆财政厅《南疆新增水资源战略研究》专项课题（403-1005-YBN-FT6I）；天池博士计划项目（tcbs201823）；博士科研启动基金项目（BS180241） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 探明开都河径流和降水的演变特征及其关系，对了解流域的水文循环过程、进行水资源管理具有重要的现实意义。基于开都河大山口水文观测站径流量实测数据，利用Mann-Kendall趋势和突变检验以及累积距平法，分析开都河近60 a的径流和降水演变规律，利用双累积曲线法定量研究降水和人类活动对开都河径流变化的贡献量。结果表明：（1）开都河年径流量波动较小，多年平均值、最大和最小值分别为35.44×108 m3、57.09×108 m3和24.61×108 m3。（2）径流量整体呈上升趋势，以0.166×108 m3/a的速率递增，于1995年发生由少到多的突变。（3）开都河源区降水年际变化较小，多年平均值、最大和最小值分别为271.48 mm、406.6 mm以及191.4 mm，且在1998年发生突变。（4）在径流量增加过程中，降水和人类活动对其贡献率分别为68.2%、31.8%；影响量分别为4.71×108 m3和2.2×108 m3。研究成果为开都河源区水资源管理、利用和水土流失整治提供数据基础和决策依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on the discharge data from the Dashankou hydrological observation station on Kaidu River from 1960 to 2019, we analyzed the runoff and precipitation patterns of Kaidu River over the 60 year period using the Mann-Kendall trend test, abrupt change test and the cumulative deficit method. The contributions of precipitation and human activities to changes in runoff were quantified using the double cumulative curve method. The study is important for understanding the hydrological cycle and improving water resource management in the Kaidu River basin. Results show that: (1) the annual discharge of Kaidu River fluctuated little over the 60 years, and averaged 35.44×108 m3. The maximum discharge was 57.09×108 m3 (2002) and the minimum discharge was 24.61×108 m3 (1986). (2) Kaidu River discharge trended upward at a rate of 0.166×108 m3/a, but there was a large change in 1995. (3) The annual variation in precipitation in the source area of Kaidu River was small, with average annual, maximum and minimum values of 271.48 mm, 406.6 mm and 191.4 mm, respectively, and an abrupt change in 1998. (4) The relative contributions of precipitation and human activities to the increase of runoff were 68.2% (4.71×108 m3) and 31.8% (2.2×108 m3), respectively. These results provide a database and decision reference for water resource management and utilization as well as soil erosion control in the Kaidu River source area. |
| 孙 月,刘思海,邢 坤,谢 蕾,郑灵巧,刘 源.2023.近60年开都河源区径流演变及驱动因素定量分析[J].水生态学杂志,44(6):10-18. |
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