| 气候变化情景下洞庭湖流域鸟类栖息地适宜性分布研究 |
| Bird Habitat Suitability Distribution in Dongting Lake Basin Under Different Climate Change Scenarios |
| 投稿时间：2021-07-08 修订日期：2021-09-27 |
| DOI：10.15928/j.1674-3075.202107080236 |
| 中文关键词:鸟类 气候变化 栖息地 Maxent 模型 洞庭湖 |
| 英文关键词:bird climate change habitat Maxent model Dongting Lake |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金（51809184）；长江水科学研究联合基金（U2040205） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 鸟类对生态系统变化较为敏感，是衡量生态环境质量变化的一种重要指示生物。气候变化已成为栖息地丧失的重要原因之一，对鸟类的迁徙、繁殖有一定的影响。以洞庭湖流域为研究区域，结合收集到的382个鸟类出现点数据、遥感影像数据、气候变化数据等，基于Maxent模型方法，综合分析洞庭湖流域鸟类分布的驱动气候因素，并预测2050年气候不同情景下鸟类栖息地适宜性分布特征。结果显示，历史情景下洞庭湖流域鸟类的适宜性栖息地为多个集中分布区组成的带状区域，而在未来情景下栖息地由以前的带状分布逐渐演变为团状分布。在2050年RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5排放情景下，适宜栖息地面积有所下降，占研究区域总面积的比例从历史情景的9.43%分别降至9.26%、8.91%；而在RCP 8.5排放情景下面积有所增加，占研究区域总面积的比例增加至10.22%。从适宜性分布来看，栖息地变得更加集中，未来情景下鸟类栖息地适宜性在3种排放情景下略高于历史情景，适宜性RCR8.5情景（33.12%）> RCR2.6情景（32.87%）> RCR4.5情景（32.74%）> 历史情景（31.33%）。研究结果可为气候变化条件下鸟类生物多样性保护提供理论支撑。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Birds are sensitive to changes in habitat and serve as an important indicator of altered environmental conditions. Climate change has become an important cause of habitat loss, consequently threatening bird migration and reproduction. Habitat suitability models such as the maximum entropy (Maxent) model allow accurate analysis of the spatial distribution of suitable habitat for a certain species and provides important theoretical support for predicting the effect of climate change on the species and for conserving rare and endangered species. In this study, Dongting Lake basin was selected as the research area, and we predicted the distribution characteristics of suitable bird habitat under three typical emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in 2050 using the Maxent model. In addition, factors driving habitat alteration were comprehensively analyzed. Maxent model development included data on the distribution of 382 bird occurring spots, data from remote sensing imagery and climate data for Dongting Lake basin for the period 1974-2000. The historical scenario (1974-2000) and three emission scenarios in year 2050 all gave area under the curve (AUC) values for the Maxent model above 0.8, indicating high model reliability. Results show that, historically, suitable bird habitat comprised 9.43% of Dongting Lake basin area, concentrated in zones that gradually change to a more lumpy distribution under future emission scenarios. In 2050, the area of the suitable habitat decreases from 9.43% of the study area to 9.26% and 8.91% under scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5, and increases to 10.22% under scenario RCP 8.5. Overall, compared with historical conditions, bird habitat suitability under the three typical emission scenarios in 2050 was slightly higher, with suitability following the order: RCP8.5 (33.12%) > RCP2.6 (32.87%) > RCP4.5 (32.74%) > historical scenario (31.33%). The distribution of suitable habitat correlates closely with the distribution of lakes. Seasonal variation of temperature and the amount of precipitation in dry season were the primary factors affecting habitat suitability. Our study provides theoretical support for bird biodiversity conservation in the Dongting Lake basin as climate changes. However, biodiversity conservation will confront the difficult challenge posed by uncertainties about the ecological consequences of climate change. Despite this challenge, decision makers will be able to prioritize potential bird habitat as they plan for climate change. |
| 袁玉洁,邹 曦,史 方,高 翔,胡 莲,张志永.2022.气候变化情景下洞庭湖流域鸟类栖息地适宜性分布研究[J].水生态学杂志,43(4):56-62. |
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