| 基于轨迹分析和地理探测的黄河三角洲地表水演化研究 |
| Surface Water Evolution in the Yellow River Delta Based on Trajectory Analysis and Geographic Detection |
| 投稿时间：2021-05-21 修订日期：2023-03-20 |
| DOI：10.15928/j.1674-3075.202105210155 |
| 中文关键词:地表水 轨迹分析 地理探测 黄河三角洲 |
| 英文关键词:surface water trajectory analysis geographic detection Yellow River Delta |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金(41371517)；山东省社科规划重大项目(20AWTJ07)；山东省高校科技项目（J18KA199） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 水资源的先天不足和后天失养，使其成为黄河三角洲生态环境保护与社会经济高质量发展的瓶颈要素。为明晰黄河三角洲地表水演化特征，厘清区域内地表水演化驱动因子，通过收集黄河三角洲遥感影像、自然环境和社会经济数据，综合运用轨迹分析法和地理探测器分析研究区地表水的演化规律及其驱动力状况。结果表明：(1)1990－2019年黄河三角洲地表水增加1 020.09 km2，呈增长态势，其中盐田养殖池增长951.29 km2，是演化最剧烈的水体类型；水库增长42.60 km2，主要发生在2000年前；坑塘增加了58.51 km2，增长幅度随时间逐渐增加；除2000－2010年外，河流均处于低速减少状态，2010年前沟渠处于高速增长状态，由1990年的2?895km2增加至2010年的5?133?km2,随后减缓；(2)农田和滩涂是河流主要的转化对象，农田和未利用地是水库演化的转换类型，坑塘演化主要发生在坑塘与农田之间，滩涂是盐田养殖池面积增长主要来源，农田和未利用地是主要的转出去向；(3)河流演化主要受到有效灌溉面积和第一产业变化的影响，水库增加主要受人口数量增长和有效灌溉面积增长的影响，人口增加是盐田养殖池增加的主要推动力，第一产业和第二产业增长则是盐田养殖池减少的关键因子；沟渠长度增加受到人口数量增加、GDP增长、有效灌溉面积变大和第一产业发展的影响，第二产业发展和有效灌溉面积增加是坑塘转入的主导因子，人口数量增长和第一产业比重减少是坑塘转出的主导因子。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Insufficient water supply and excessive demand have created a bottleneck for environmental protection and high-quality economic development of the Yellow River Delta. In this study, we clarified the characteristics and driving forces of surface water evolution in the Yellow River Delta for the period 1990–2019, based on remote sensing images, environmental data and socio-economic statistics. Land use in the study area was classified as farmland, unused land, construction land and tidal flat, and the surface water was classified as reservoir, river, pond, ditch and salt-aquaculture pond. Using trajectory analysis and a constructed geographic detection model, the evolution regularity of the five types of surface water were analyzed and the law of surface water evolution was revealed. Results show that: (1) During the study period (1990-2019), surface water area in the Yellow River Delta increased by 1 020.09 km2. The most dramatic change was in salt-aquaculture ponds, which increased by 951.29 km2. The area of reservoirs increased by 42.60 km2, mainly before 2000, and ponds increased by 58.51 km2. The surface area of rivers decreased during the periods 1990-2000 and 2010-2019, and increased during the period 2000-2010. The length of ditches increased rapidly from 2 895?km in 1990 to 5 133?km in 2010, then the rate of increase declined. (2) The decrease in river area was due mainly to conversion to farmland and tidal flats, and the increase in reservoir area was mainly from farmland and unused land. The evolution of ponds mainly occurred between farmland and ponds. Tidal flats were the main source for the increased area of salt-aquaculture ponds. Most of the land conversion was to farmland and unused land. (3) River evolution was closely related to irrigation area and primary industry. Increases in population and irrigation area were the factors affecting the growth of reservoir area. Population increase was the driving factor for increased salt-aquaculture pond area, while primary and secondary industry were the key factors for loss of salt-aquaculture ponds. Increased ditch length was driven by increases in population, GDP growth rate, irrigation area and primary industry. Secondary industry and irrigation area affected surface water transfer to ponds, while increased population and primary industry were the essential factors affecting pond water transferring to other types of surface water. |
| 李云龙,黄淑萍,韩 美,孔祥伦,王 敏,惠洪宽.2023.基于轨迹分析和地理探测的黄河三角洲地表水演化研究[J].水生态学杂志,44(2):10-18. |
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